The 50 most-anticipated video games

OTX GamePlan has released its list of the top 50 upcoming games, and each of the three main console platforms — Microsoft, Nintendo and Sony — has a game in one of the top three spots.

Microsoft’s Halo 3: ODST ranks first; Nintendo’s New Super Mario Bros. Wii ranks second; and Sony’s God of War III ranks third. The results are based on purchase intent surveys.


The data was collected from polls taken after the E3 video game conference at the beginning of June. E3 is where all of the upcoming industry games are displayed for the first time.

Nick Williams, head of the OTX GamePlan service, said the chart tracks three key measures: aided awareness of a game, the intent to purchase it, and the intent to pre-order the game from retailers. The data was collected during the last two weeks from a representative sample of about 1,000 U.S. gamers between the ages of 13 and 59. The company conducts the surveys via web offers.

The average score for all three metrics is 100. Since Halo 3: ODST has a purchase index rating of 828, that means the intent to purchase it is eight times higher than it is for an average game. The survey is about as scientific as you can get when it comes to data about what games are going to be popular.

Here are Williams’ comments about one particular game, Activision Blizzard’s Modern Warfare 2.

No matter how you slice it, Modern Warfare 2 is poised to be a massive holiday hit. But just how critical is the Call of Duty brand association for consumers? Up until the beginning of May, OTX had been tracking the title as “Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2.” More specifically, we asked a representative group of gamers in the U.S. whether or not they had heard of “Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2.” At that time, approximately 40% of all gamers in the US claimed that they had heard of this title. However, once it became clear that Activision was positioning the title as “Modern Warfare 2”, OTX removed “Call of Duty” from the consumer survey, and the awareness levels dropped to 20%. In other words, the Call of Duty brand association essentially doubles the awareness for the game. That is quite a remarkable statistic.

Despite this dramatic drop in awareness, the purchase intent for Modern Warfare 2 remains very strong. In our latest charts based on the last 4 weeks of data, Modern Warfare 2 for the Xbox 360 ranks as the 6th most anticipated title. While there is no denying the extensive reach of the Call of Duty brand, Modern Warfare has a passionate following of its own. The intensity of the purchase intent is particularly impressive, as illustrated by the high levels of Pre-Order Intent, which is the highest of any title currently being tracked.

This data offers up compelling evidence for the importance of the Call of Duty moniker, and also demonstrates the challenge Activision faces as it looks to put together the biggest entertainment launch of all time. That said, there is a passionate and vocal audience eagerly awaiting the Modern Warfare sequel, and even without the Call of Duty association, it is still perceived as a must have title.